A simple model of the Fed’s historical decision-making currently suggests a 60% probability of a September cut vs. a market-implied 85% (see charts). US CPI / PPI data showed further evidence of tariff pass-through to goods prices, with mixed services results (see charts). Chinese fixed asset investment weakened sharply, apparently partly reflecting anti-involution policies (see […]
A simple model of the Fed’s historical decision-making currently suggests a 60% probability of a September cut vs. a market-implied 85% (see charts). US CPI / PPI data showed further evidence of tariff pass-through to goods prices, with mixed services results (see charts). Chinese fixed asset investment weakened sharply, apparently partly reflecting anti-involution policies (see […]
A simple model of the Fed’s historical decision-making currently suggests a 60% probability of a September cut vs. a market-implied 85% (see charts). US CPI / PPI data showed further evidence of tariff pass-through to goods prices, with mixed services results (see charts). Chinese fixed asset investment weakened sharply, apparently partly reflecting anti-involution policies (see […]
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In this month’s commentary we go under the hood of the recent rally in EM equities, and cover Mexico’s controversial judicial elections and their impact on the country’s institutional quality.