Contradictory Fed
March 26, 2025 | NS Partners
The Fed’s economic forecasts are inconsistent with the suggestion of a 50 bp cut in rates by year-end, according to a model of its historical behaviour.
NS Partners is part of the Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group, a multi-boutique investment management company whose affiliates collectively manage over $139 billion in financial assets.
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US money supply / demand in broad balance
March 21, 2025 | NS Partners
The economy and markets no longer enjoy support from an excess stock of money.
Vicious and virtuous investment circles revisited & Malaysia’s golden opportunity
March 20, 2025 | NS Partners
This month’s commentary covers Trump trades going in reverse, along with our research trip in Malaysia.
UK vacancies still weakening
March 20, 2025 | NS Partners
A fall in private sector postings pushed single-month vacancies further below the pre-pandemic level.
Japanese money update: still weakening
March 14, 2025 | NS Partners
Japanese inflation isn’t back and money trends suggest a coming major undershoot.
Market moves consistent with mid / late stockbuilding cycle
March 13, 2025 | NS Partners
Recent outperformance of non-US equity markets may be a signal of the end of the bull market rather than a harbinger of broadening strength.
Inflation worries are premature
March 7, 2025 | NS Partners
Recent policy upheavals may eventually prove inflationary but near-term risks are judged to remain on the downside.
Global industrial momentum peaking on schedule
March 4, 2025 | NS Partners
The US policy shock calls into question the previous baseline scenario of modest and temporary deceleration.
Magical thinking on tariffs
February 28, 2025 | NS Partners
The US may suffer greater economic damage from tariff hikes than China / the EU.
Weaker US / Eurozone money data
February 27, 2025 | NS Partners
January money numbers suggest that US policy chaos is damaging economic prospects.
Chinese stocks climb “wall of worry”
February 19, 2025 | NS Partners
Chinese money growth has normalised while the MSCI China index remains on a steep valuation discount despite recent outperformance.
UK inflation: it’s getting complicated
February 13, 2025 | NS Partners
The Bank of England expects rises in regulated prices and taxes to push headline CPI inflation up to 3.5% by June but the forecast likely underestimates disinflationary pressure from monetary weakness.
DeepSeek frenzy a reminder of China’s ability to innovate
February 12, 2025 | NS Partners
This month’s commentary explores the market implications of Chinese AI innovation and market implications of AI ubiquity.
Global industrial revival on track but obstacles ahead
February 5, 2025 | NS Partners
Manufacturing surveys may reach a short-term peak this spring, with the extent of any retracement partly depending on trade policy developments.
UK money update: still weak
January 31, 2025 | NS Partners
MPC inertia had condemned the UK to economic underperformance well before the October Budget.
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Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA
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Chief Compliance Officer
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NS Partners Ltd.
December 6th, 2021