Global money update: cavalry arriving?
April 24, 2025 | NS Partners
A rise in money growth, if sustained, could offset US tariff damage.
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‘Beautiful’ tariffs and the end of exceptionalism
April 22, 2025 | NS Partners
This month’s commentary considers how America-First trade policy has exposed US money and credit imbalances, and how this may signal the beginning of a new regime in global financial markets.
Echoes of 1971
April 17, 2025 | NS Partners
Current events are reminiscent of the same stage of the last 54-year Kondratyev cycle.
Chinese / Japanese monetary divergence still widening
April 15, 2025 | NS Partners
Monetary trends suggest that China’s economy is better placed to withstand tariff damage than Japan’s.
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
April 2, 2025 | NS Partners
A promising recovery in global money growth may be insufficient to offset lagged effects of prior tightness and the US trade policy shock.
Contradictory Fed
March 26, 2025 | NS Partners
The Fed’s economic forecasts are inconsistent with the suggestion of a 50 bp cut in rates by year-end, according to a model of its historical behaviour.
US money supply / demand in broad balance
March 21, 2025 | NS Partners
The economy and markets no longer enjoy support from an excess stock of money.
Vicious and virtuous investment circles revisited & Malaysia’s golden opportunity
March 20, 2025 | NS Partners
This month’s commentary covers Trump trades going in reverse, along with our research trip in Malaysia.
UK vacancies still weakening
March 20, 2025 | NS Partners
A fall in private sector postings pushed single-month vacancies further below the pre-pandemic level.
Japanese money update: still weakening
March 14, 2025 | NS Partners
Japanese inflation isn’t back and money trends suggest a coming major undershoot.
Market moves consistent with mid / late stockbuilding cycle
March 13, 2025 | NS Partners
Recent outperformance of non-US equity markets may be a signal of the end of the bull market rather than a harbinger of broadening strength.
Inflation worries are premature
March 7, 2025 | NS Partners
Recent policy upheavals may eventually prove inflationary but near-term risks are judged to remain on the downside.
Global industrial momentum peaking on schedule
March 4, 2025 | NS Partners
The US policy shock calls into question the previous baseline scenario of modest and temporary deceleration.
Magical thinking on tariffs
February 28, 2025 | NS Partners
The US may suffer greater economic damage from tariff hikes than China / the EU.
Weaker US / Eurozone money data
February 27, 2025 | NS Partners
January money numbers suggest that US policy chaos is damaging economic prospects.
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