Why has UK money growth slumped?
July 11, 2025
Monetary weakness may partly reflect temporary factors but also signals an overrestrictive policy stance.
Commentaries
Keeping investors informed on capital markets
Strategy Commentaries
Review each strategy’s performance and positioning during the quarter and near-term outlook. To view our latest commentaries please click the links below:
Quarterly Liquidity
Insights
Insights from our investment team on factors affecting recent market performance plus near-term outlook.
Money Moves Markets
Regular updates from Economist and Strategist Simon Ward on global monetary trends and their implications for economic and market prospects.
Insights
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
July 9, 2025
Global six-month real narrow money momentum fell sharply between March and May, suggesting economic weakness from late 2025.
Hong Kong’s US dollar overhang
June 24, 2025
Demand for US dollar deposits may be starting to wane, contributing to weakness in local rates and upward pressure on the RMB.
Chinese money update: losing momentum
June 17, 2025
Chinese monetary trends suggest a continuation of lacklustre economic growth with negligible inflation.
Are EM equities great again?
June 16, 2025
In this month’s commentary we go under the hood of the recent rally in EM equities, and cover Mexico’s controversial judicial elections and their impact on the country’s institutional quality.
A “monetarist” perspective on UK medium-term inflation prospects
June 11, 2025
Historical lags and exchange rate appreciation suggest that disinflation has much further to run.
Disappointing Eurozone / UK money numbers
June 6, 2025
Eurozone / UK money growth has weakened despite rate cuts, suggesting that central banks have more work to do.
Global industrial momentum still weakening
June 5, 2025
Trade disruption and a monetary relapse suggest receding prospects for a H2 recovery in global manufacturing PMI new orders.
Global money update: renewed weakness
June 4, 2025
A hopeful signal from an earlier monetary pick-up has fizzled.
US money update: balance of payments drag
May 30, 2025
US money growth is slowing, suggesting less support for the economy and improving prospects for rate cuts.
UK inflation: underlying softening
May 28, 2025
UK April inflation numbers were much less bad than reported.
Implications of Asian currency tremors
May 16, 2025
This month’s commentary examines how the violent surge in the Taiwan dollar in early May could signal the start of a broader shift in global capital that could have big implications for which markets out- or underperform going forward.
Why is the UK an employment outlier?
May 16, 2025
UK monetary trends have been arguing for faster MPC easing. Labour market news is now reinforcing the message.
Inflation leading indicators still benign
May 9, 2025
Three indicators that signalled the 2021-22 global inflation spike and reversal continue to suggest a favourable outlook.
Are US monetary conditions about to tighten?
May 1, 2025
“Treasury QE” has supported US broad money growth but a lifting of the debt ceiling promises a reckoning.
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