Review each strategy’s performance and positioning during the quarter and near-term outlook. To view our latest commentaries please click the links below:
Insights from our investment team on factors affecting recent market performance plus near-term outlook.
Regular updates from Economist and Strategist Simon Ward on global monetary trends and their implications for economic and market prospects.
Simon Ward
Economist & Strategist
Simon is responsible for liquidity and economic analysis. Liquidity signals influence country, sector and style allocation.
Monetary trends forecast the direction of the economy six to 12 months ahead. Money growth in excess of the rate required to support economic expansion is associated with an increase in demand for financial assets and upward pressure on their prices (“money moves markets”).
Simon Ward joined NS Partners (then WorldInvest) in 1994. He previously worked at Lombard Street Research, a leading independent “monetarist” forecasting firm. He has degrees in economics and finance from Cambridge and London (Birkbeck) Universities.
September 30, 2022 | NS Partners
Revised numbers confirm that US GDP fell by 0.6% (1.1% annualised) between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022*. Hours worked in the private sector economy, meanwhile, climbed 1.1% (2.2% annualised) over the same period. What explain [...]
September 23, 2022 | NS Partners
Global six-month real narrow money momentum, the key economic leading indicator in the forecasting approach employed here, is estimated to have moved sideways in deep negative territory in August* – see chart 1. All [...]
September 22, 2022 | NS Partners
While global liquidity remains poor, EM countries are dealing with a more manageable inflation problem than in DM. Money numbers also point to a better economic outlook for EM.
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September 21, 2022 | NS Partners
Global six-month consumer price inflation peaked in June and fell further in August, reflecting pass-through of lower oil prices and a small decline in core momentum. Current commodity prices suggest a sizeable furthe [...]
September 7, 2022 | NS Partners
UK monetary trends continue to argue against Bank of England policy tightening. Annual growth of non-financial M4 – comprising money holdings of households and private non-financial firms – was 3.7% in July, [...]
August 24, 2022 | NS Partners
Cyclical equity market sectors have recouped part of their H1 underperformance of defensive sectors but monetary and cycle considerations suggest further weakness ahead. MSCI divides the 11 GICS sectors into cyc [...]
August 17, 2022 | NS Partners
The assessment here a month ago was that Chinese monetary policy easing was gaining traction but that additional stimulus and a further recovery in narrow money momentum were required to adopt a positive view of eco [...]
August 11, 2022 | NS Partners
Michael Mortimore, gestionnaire de portefeuille client de NSP, a expliqué à WealthBriefing comment l’analyse des cycles de liquidité peut contribuer à la discipline dans la sélection des actions et la répa [...]
August 11, 2022 | NS Partners
The yield spread over Treasuries of the ICE BofA US corporate high yield index rose from 310 bp at end-December to a peak of 599 in early July. It has since retraced more than half of this move. Was the early July pea [...]
August 11, 2022 | NS Partners
Michael Mortimore, NSP’s Client Portfolio Manager spoke to WealthBriefing on how analysis of liquidity cycles can help provide discipline in stock selection and asset allocation.
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