A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
January 7, 2025 | NS Partners
Global money growth remains subdued, support from a previous monetary overhang has ended, while the stockbuilding cycle is approaching a less favourable phase for risk assets.
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Chinese money update: slow recovery
December 18, 2024 | NS Partners
Chinese money trends are normalising after weakness, suggesting modest economic improvement.
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Weaker US business money trends
December 13, 2024 | NS Partners
Sectoral numbers show that recent US money growth has been focused on the household and financial sectors, with business holdings falling.
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South Korea rocked by president’s attempt to impose martial law
December 12, 2024 | NS Partners
Political risks spike in South Korea, testing the country’s institutions, the currency and markets. The stampede into US equities continues. Is it sustainable?
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UK money update: corporate liquidity squeeze
December 10, 2024 | NS Partners
Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak.
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Eurozone inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track
December 4, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone services price momentum is “unsticking” as expected, supporting the forecast of sub-2% 2025 inflation.
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Global industrial momentum reviving on schedule
December 4, 2024 | NS Partners
November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions.
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Eurozone money update: insufficient recovery
November 28, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone money trends are improving but remain too weak to support economic optimism, while country details highlight French stress.
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US money update: positive signal fading
November 28, 2024 | NS Partners
A pull-back in US narrow money momentum casts doubt on post-election economic optimism.
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Stockbuilding cycle turning less favourable for markets
November 22, 2024 | NS Partners
The current stockbuilding cycle may be approaching its mid-point, which typically marks a shift from “risk-on” to a neutral or negative market environment.
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Is Trump really bearish for EM? Plus, stock picking in a China bull market
November 16, 2024 | NS Partners
A look at the potential impact of President Trump’s policies on emerging markets, the risks of rising trade tensions with China and the resilience of China’s domestic market.
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Japanese money update: downside risks rising
November 14, 2024 | NS Partners
Japanese money trends remain ominously weak, suggesting poor economic / market prospects and a return of inflation to unacceptably low levels.
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Assessing “excess” liquidity: reasons for caution
November 8, 2024 | NS Partners
Flow and stock measures of “excess” money cast doubt on claims that the liquidity backdrop for markets is unusually favourable.
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Global money update: weak signal with US still diverging
October 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Money growth is recovering disappointingly slowly in Europe and has weakened in Japan, while a recent US pick-up may fade post election.
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UK rates: the case for 50
October 23, 2024 | NS Partners
The MPC’s slowness to cut rates risks aggravating a recent loss of economic momentum and prolonging an inflation undershoot.
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