A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
October 11, 2024 | NS Partners
Monetary prospects and cycle considerations suggest global economic strength in H2 2025 / 2026 but a “hard landing” – or at least a scare of one – may be necessary first. Commentary here at mid-year proposed the following baseline scenario: A “double dip” in global industrial momentum in H2 2024 with limited recovery in early 2025, reflecting the profile of real narrow money momentum with a roughly one-year lag.