Our approach

Revised numbers confirm that US GDP fell by 0.6% (1.1% annualised) between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022*. Hours worked in the private sector economy, meanwhile, climbed 1.1% (2.2% annualised) over the same period. What explain [...]

Global six-month real narrow money momentum, the key economic leading indicator in the forecasting approach employed here, is estimated to have moved sideways in deep negative territory in August* – see chart 1. All [...]

While global liquidity remains poor, EM countries are dealing with a more manageable inflation problem than in DM. Money numbers also point to a better economic outlook for EM.  

Global six-month consumer price inflation peaked in June and fell further in August, reflecting pass-through of lower oil prices and a small decline in core momentum. Current commodity prices suggest a sizeable furthe [...]

UK monetary trends continue to argue against Bank of England policy tightening.  Annual growth of non-financial M4 – comprising money holdings of households and private non-financial firms – was 3.7% in July, [...]

Cyclical equity market sectors have recouped part of their H1 underperformance of defensive sectors but monetary and cycle considerations suggest further weakness ahead.  MSCI divides the 11 GICS sectors into cyc [...]

The assessment here a month ago was that Chinese monetary policy easing was gaining traction but that additional stimulus and a further recovery in narrow money momentum were required to adopt a positive view of eco [...]

Michael Mortimore, gestionnaire de portefeuille client de NSP, a expliqué à WealthBriefing comment l’analyse des cycles de liquidité peut contribuer à la discipline dans la sélection des actions et la répa [...]

The yield spread over Treasuries of the ICE BofA US corporate high yield index rose from 310 bp at end-December to a peak of 599 in early July. It has since retraced more than half of this move. Was the early July pea [...]

Michael Mortimore, NSP’s Client Portfolio Manager spoke to WealthBriefing on how analysis of liquidity cycles can help provide discipline in stock selection and asset allocation.