Investment philosophy

The consensus is gloomy about UK economic prospects but is it gloomy enough? The current debate has echoes of mid-2008.

Eurozone flash PMIs this week were less bad than expected, bolstering a growing consensus that economic prospects are improving. Monetary trends continue to argue the opposite.

A post in October gave a hopeful view of Chinese prospects, noting that “excess” money had accumulated and could flow into equities and the economy if policy-makers signalled a commitment to expansion.

In a soft month for EM equities, we review 2022’s winners and losers along with some key investment themes.

High inflation resulted in poor equity market performance in 2022 despite economic / earnings growth. Inflation relief in 2023 may limit further market weakness despite a global recession.

Recent Bank of England signals have been deemed to be less hawkish than those of the Fed and ECB, contributing to a view that UK policy tightening is less likely to prove excessive, in the sense of causing greater economic damage than necessary to return inflation to target.

Gas price relief and Chinese reopening have tempered pessimism about Eurozone economic prospects, contributing to a Q4 rally in equities. Monetary trends, by contrast, suggest a worsening outlook due to the ECB’s scorched earth policy tightening.  The preferred narrow money measure here – non-financial M1 – contracted for a third straight month in November. The […]

US non-farm payrolls have risen by an average of 337,000 per month in the eight months since the Fed started hiking rates in March. The household survey measure of employment was essentially flat over this period.

The BoJ’s decision to widen the fluctuation band of the 10-year JGB yield around the zero target follows an apparent withdrawal of monetary policy support by the PBoC in recent weeks.

Emerging markets bounced back through the month, fuelled by signals that inflation is peaking, China announcing measures to support the property market along with taking steps to reopen.

UK payrolled employment rose solidly again in November, while pay growth numbers for October surprised to the upside. It has been suggested that this news reinforces the case for a Bank rate hike of at least 50 bp this week.

The global manufacturing PMI new orders index was little changed in November, the six-month rate of change of the OECD’s G7 leading indicator has hooked up and cyclical sectors have been outperforming defensive sectors in the recent equity market rally. Do these developments signal a bottoming of global economic momentum and a prospective H1 2023 […]

UK money trends remain consistent with inflation normalisation, implying that further MPC tightening will unnecessarily prolong and deepen the recession.  The artificial boost to headline money numbers from cash-raising by LDI funds partially unwound in October – the Bank of England’s M4ex measure fell by 0.6% on the month after a 2.6% September jump.  As […]

A post last month argued that a pick-in Eurozone broad money M3 growth into September reflected temporary factors that would reverse. October numbers delivered the expected turnaround, with M3 falling by 0.4% on the month. Narrow money measures, meanwhile, lost further momentum, with Italian data particularly weak. The summer pick-up in M3 growth had been discounted here […]

The major fiscal tightening announced by Chancellor Hunt in the Autumn Statement was motivated by a markedly more pessimistic OBR assessment of medium-term prospects for the economy and public finances. Even if its latest forecasts prove “correct”, revisions on this scale between six-monthly forecasting rounds are questionable and result in undesirable volatility in policy-making. The […]