A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
April 8, 2026
Global monetary trends were supportive pre-shock but an inflation squeeze on real growth is now likely, reinforcing a cautionary message from cycle analysis.
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Global money update: US rebound
March 26, 2026
Monetary trends suggest that US economic prospects were improving relative to the Eurozone before the Gulf War III energy shock.
UK housing crash?
March 25, 2026
The Gulf War III mortgage rate shock may be the trigger for the long-term housing cycle to enter its “bust” phase.
Another central bank policy mistake?
March 24, 2026
Hawkish officials are fighting the last war, fearing a repeat of the 2022 inflation upsurge despite much weaker money growth.
Responding to conflict in the Middle East
March 16, 2026
The Iran conflict highlights how navigating macro shocks is the key to investment success in emerging markets investing. In times of high uncertainty and volatility, it pays to be both disciplined and nimble, recalibrating beliefs and tweaking exposure as the data changes.
Cyclical vulnerability
March 13, 2026
Energy supply disruption is occurring with key economic cycles in time windows for weakness.
Misplaced ISM optimism
March 11, 2026
A rise in the US ISM manufacturing new orders index was expected to be short-lived even before the outbreak of Gulf War III.
Why has US bank loan growth surged?
March 4, 2026
A recent pick-up in commercial bank loan growth is unlikely to be a positive signal for economic prospects.
Surprising January monetary news
February 25, 2026
Global six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have rebounded from a sharp December fall to reach a new high in January.
Has the Fed’s easing window closed?
February 20, 2026
The historical Fed would be shifting to a tightening bias in response to recent economic news.
Tencent and AI gaming: Beneficiary or loser?
February 19, 2026
Investors question whether Tencent’s gaming dominance will persist in the face of AI disruption, while trade realignment creates both risks and opportunities for EM investors.
US deposit distortion confirmed
February 11, 2026
The Fed’s Public Affairs office has confirmed that a large rise in demand deposits in late 2025 reflected a reporting change.
Monetary tremors
February 6, 2026
Recent market turbulence could reflect an adverse shift in “excess” money conditions.
Fade the manufacturing bounce
February 3, 2026
An expected PMI pick-up is under way but money trends suggest another relapse from Q2.
Eurozone / UK money update: UK relative recovery
January 30, 2026
Eurozone and UK money trends have shown disappointingly small responses to policy easing.
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Jean-Philippe Lemay
Managing Director,
Head of Institutional Sales, Global
Eric Hasenauer
Senior Vice President,
Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA
John Ricketts
Senior Vice President,
Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA
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NS Partners Ltd.
December 6, 2021