Brazilian Blackjack: Decoding the allure of a high-risk, high-reward market
January 21, 2025 | NS Partners
This month’s commentary covers our search for a winning hand in beaten down Brazilian equities.
NS Partners is a research-driven, active manager that combines its
Stock selection is based on identifying companies that are expected to generate increasing economic — not accounting — profit (i.e., where returns on invested capital exceed their cost of capital). We closely monitor monetary conditions in the major economies and maintain a strategic bias to those companies, industries, and countries that have superior long-term growth potential.
Our rigorous research and screening process results in team members, each a specialist in a particular country or region, explaining the rationale for investing in the company before the stock is included in the portfolio. Decisions to buy or sell are made within a broader framework that looks at:
Buy thesis
Industry outlook
EVA
Addressable market and competitive dynamics
Contribution to portfolio risk
NS Partners’ overall objective is to maximize exposure to the best
market opportunities while keeping the portfolio within acceptable
risk tolerance levels and ensuring proper diversification of
investment ideas.
Insights
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Chinese money update: positive signal
January 16, 2025 | NS Partners
Chinese money and credit numbers for December suggest that policy stimulus is becoming effective, warranting an upgraded assessment of economic prospects.
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
January 7, 2025 | NS Partners
Global money growth remains subdued, support from a previous monetary overhang has ended, while the stockbuilding cycle is approaching a less favourable phase for risk assets.
Chinese money update: slow recovery
December 18, 2024 | NS Partners
Chinese money trends are normalising after weakness, suggesting modest economic improvement.
Weaker US business money trends
December 13, 2024 | NS Partners
Sectoral numbers show that recent US money growth has been focused on the household and financial sectors, with business holdings falling.
South Korea rocked by president’s attempt to impose martial law
December 12, 2024 | NS Partners
Political risks spike in South Korea, testing the country’s institutions, the currency and markets. The stampede into US equities continues. Is it sustainable?
UK money update: corporate liquidity squeeze
December 10, 2024 | NS Partners
Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak.
Eurozone inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track
December 4, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone services price momentum is “unsticking” as expected, supporting the forecast of sub-2% 2025 inflation.
Global industrial momentum reviving on schedule
December 4, 2024 | NS Partners
November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions.
Eurozone money update: insufficient recovery
November 28, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone money trends are improving but remain too weak to support economic optimism, while country details highlight French stress.
US money update: positive signal fading
November 28, 2024 | NS Partners
A pull-back in US narrow money momentum casts doubt on post-election economic optimism.
Stockbuilding cycle turning less favourable for markets
November 22, 2024 | NS Partners
The current stockbuilding cycle may be approaching its mid-point, which typically marks a shift from “risk-on” to a neutral or negative market environment.
Is Trump really bearish for EM? Plus, stock picking in a China bull market
November 16, 2024 | NS Partners
A look at the potential impact of President Trump’s policies on emerging markets, the risks of rising trade tensions with China and the resilience of China’s domestic market.
Japanese money update: downside risks rising
November 14, 2024 | NS Partners
Japanese money trends remain ominously weak, suggesting poor economic / market prospects and a return of inflation to unacceptably low levels.
Assessing “excess” liquidity: reasons for caution
November 8, 2024 | NS Partners
Flow and stock measures of “excess” money cast doubt on claims that the liquidity backdrop for markets is unusually favourable.
For additional information on NS Partners Ltd, please contact:
Brent Wilkins
Senior Vice President,
Head of Institutional Sales, Canada
Eric Hasenauer
Senior Vice President,
Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA,
John Ricketts
Senior Vice President,
Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA
Anna Kirk
Chief Compliance Officer
& Head of Client Service
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NS Partners Ltd.
December 7th, 2021