Chinese money and credit numbers for December suggest that policy stimulus is becoming effective, warranting an upgraded assessment of economic prospects.
Global money growth remains subdued, support from a previous monetary overhang has ended, while the stockbuilding cycle is approaching a less favourable phase for risk assets.
Political risks spike in South Korea, testing the country’s institutions, the currency and markets. The stampede into US equities continues. Is it sustainable?
Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak.
November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions.
The current stockbuilding cycle may be approaching its mid-point, which typically marks a shift from “risk-on” to a neutral or negative market environment.
A look at the potential impact of President Trump’s policies on emerging markets, the risks of rising trade tensions with China and the resilience of China’s domestic market.