Money & Cycles Weekly Bulletin
Services weakness
May 11, 2026 by Simon Ward
- Forward-looking components of the global PMI services survey failed to recover in April after large March falls (see charts).
- Monthly growth of the OECD’s G7 leading index slowed further in April, suggesting a fall in global manufacturing PMI new orders (see charts).
- US labour market indicators have stabilised since late 2025, arguing against a Fed easing bias (see charts).
- Chinese exports reached another record in April (see charts).
- A belated pick-up in Japanese core wage growth will support BoJ hawks (see charts).
- The UK construction PMI slumped, while Indeed job postings are signalling a resumed fall in labour demand (see charts).
- YTD outperformance of EM equities has been entirely due to Korea / Taiwan, with the rest of the asset class lagging DM (see charts).
The global PMI services new business and future output indices failed to recover in April after large March falls:
Consumer services new business declined to a five-plus-year low, with business services demand also weaker:
Monthly growth of the OECD’s G7 leading index slowed further in April, suggesting a fall in global manufacturing PMI new orders:
The new high in PMI new orders in April wasn’t matched by an alternative indicator based on national surveys (ISM, NBS, Ifo etc.):
Trend growth in US private payrolls appears to have firmed slightly since late 2025:
Consistently, the unemployment rate has stabilised after a modest rise earlier in 2025:
Job openings have similarly been moving sideways:
Chinese exports reached another record in April, with imports also strong:
A belated pick-up in Japanese core wage growth will support BoJ hawks:
German manufacturing output fell again but a bounce in orders suggests near-term support:
The UK construction PMI slumped, with respondents citing postponed demand and increased cost pressures due to Gulf War III:
Indeed job postings are signalling a resumed fall in labour demand:
YTD outperformance of EM equities has been entirely due to Korea / Taiwan, with the rest of the asset class lagging DM:
Another new high in MSCI World wasn’t matched by its equal-weight counterpart:
![Jean-Philippe-Lemay, CC&L FG [504x504_03]](https://ns-partners.cclgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/06/FG_-Jean-Philippe-Lemay_504x504_03.jpg)
