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Money & Cycles Weekly Bulletin

Job openings still sliding

July 14, 2025 by Simon Ward

    • Timely Indeed numbers on job postings continue to trend lower across most economies (see charts).
    • The positions of Canada and the UK as positive and negative outliers respectively are consistent with relative monetary policies and money growth (i.e. the UK MPC has been asleep at the wheel) (see charts).
    • Chinese six-month money momentum has cooled but additional monetary policy support is arriving (see charts).
    • Japanese capital flow numbers cast doubt on the idea that rising Japanese yields are sucking capital out of other bond markets, driving upward pressure on yields (see charts).
    • Japanese money trends remain very weak and goods PPI inflation has slowed (see charts).

Indeed numbers on job postings continue to trend lower across most economies, with the UK weakest and Canada showing relative resilience:

Chart 1 showing Indeed Job Postings (1 February 2020 = 100)

Canada’s June labour market report surprised positively, with unemployment ticking down.

US official job openings have been volatile but the Indeed numbers suggest that the trend is still down:

Chart 2 showing US Job Openings & Indeed Job Postings

UK official vacancies have fallen by more than suggested by the Indeed numbers recently, raising the possibility of a pause in the decline:

Chart 3 showing UK Vacancies* & Indeed Job Postings *Single Month, Own Seasonal Adjustment

 

The positions of Canada and the UK as positive and negative Indeed outliers respectively are consistent with relative monetary policies and money growth (i.e. BoC appropriately dovish, MPC asleep at the wheel):

Chart 4 showing Real Narrow Money (% 6m)

However, Canadian money growth is cooling, suggesting that the BoC needs to keep easing.

 

Chinese six-month money and credit momentum has moderated, though remains respectable:

Chart 5 showing China Nominal GDP* (% 2q) & Money / Social Financing* (% 6m) *Own Seasonal Adjustment

Note: a rise in year-on-year growth rates reflected a favourable base effect.

The PBoC has taken advantage of US dollar weakness to ease policy further, managing money rates lower and allowing exchange rate depreciation vs. other currencies:

Chart 6 showing China 3m SHIBOR & CFETS RMB Index

Exports are still benefiting from front-loading but payback is approaching:

Chart 7 showing China Exports & Imports ($ bn, Q1 months averaged, own sa)

Core CPI inflation ticked up but remains very low, while PPI deflation accelerated:

Chart 8 showing China Price Measures (% yoy)

 

The Japanese 30-year yield is testing its May high. Are rising Japanese yields sucking capital out of other bond markets, driving upward pressure on longer-term yields?:

Chart 9 showing Japan JGB Yields

Japanese capital flow numbers show a significant net inflow on the long-term debt account in March / April but nothing extraordinary more recently (through early July):

Chart 10 showing Japan International Transactions in Long-Term Debt Securities (¥ bn) Positive = Net Outflow

 

Money numbers have started to recover after extreme weakness:

Chart 11 showing Japan Narrow / Broad Money & Bank Lending (% 3m annualised)

Goods PPI inflation slowed further, with other measures forecast to follow:

Chart 12 showing Japan Price Measures (% yoy)

Spain remains a positive Indeed outlier but Italian relative resilience may be ending:

Chart 13 showing Indeed Job Postings (1 February 2020 = 100)

UK GDP contraction in April / May was signalled by weakness in vacancies:

Chart 14 showing UK GDP / Gross Value Added & Vacancies* (% 3m) *Single Month, Own Seasonal Adjustment

NS Partners Ltd.
July 14th, 2025