Are US monetary conditions about to tighten?
May 1, 2025
“Treasury QE” has supported US broad money growth but a lifting of the debt ceiling promises a reckoning.
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Are Eurozone money trends inflecting weaker?
April 30, 2025
Eurozone March money numbers suggest that further ECB policy easing will be required to insulate the economy from global weakness.
Global money update: cavalry arriving?
April 24, 2025
A rise in money growth, if sustained, could offset US tariff damage.
‘Beautiful’ tariffs and the end of exceptionalism
April 22, 2025
This month’s commentary considers how America-First trade policy has exposed US money and credit imbalances, and how this may signal the beginning of a new regime in global financial markets.
Echoes of 1971
April 17, 2025
Current events are reminiscent of the same stage of the last 54-year Kondratyev cycle.
Chinese / Japanese monetary divergence still widening
April 15, 2025
Monetary trends suggest that China’s economy is better placed to withstand tariff damage than Japan’s.
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
April 2, 2025
A promising recovery in global money growth may be insufficient to offset lagged effects of prior tightness and the US trade policy shock.
Contradictory Fed
March 26, 2025
The Fed’s economic forecasts are inconsistent with the suggestion of a 50 bp cut in rates by year-end, according to a model of its historical behaviour.
US money supply / demand in broad balance
March 21, 2025
The economy and markets no longer enjoy support from an excess stock of money.
Vicious and virtuous investment circles revisited & Malaysia’s golden opportunity
March 20, 2025
This month’s commentary covers Trump trades going in reverse, along with our research trip in Malaysia.
UK vacancies still weakening
March 20, 2025
A fall in private sector postings pushed single-month vacancies further below the pre-pandemic level.
Japanese money update: still weakening
March 14, 2025
Japanese inflation isn’t back and money trends suggest a coming major undershoot.
Market moves consistent with mid / late stockbuilding cycle
March 13, 2025
Recent outperformance of non-US equity markets may be a signal of the end of the bull market rather than a harbinger of broadening strength.
Inflation worries are premature
March 7, 2025
Recent policy upheavals may eventually prove inflationary but near-term risks are judged to remain on the downside.
Global industrial momentum peaking on schedule
March 4, 2025
The US policy shock calls into question the previous baseline scenario of modest and temporary deceleration.
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Senior Vice President,
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John Ricketts
Senior Vice President,
Co-Head of Institutional Sales, USA
Anna Kirk
Chief Compliance Officer
& Head of Client Service
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