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Money Moves Markets

Hard landing watch: September surveys

September 27, 2023 by Simon Ward

This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on whether incoming economic news supports or contradicts the forecast of a global “hard landing” suggested by monetary trends. 

Flash results suggest that the global composite PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of demand momentum – fell for a fourth month in September, consistent with the monetary signal of a slide into early 2024, at least. 

The flash results, available for the US, Japan, Eurozone, UK and Australia, imply a decline through 50 to the lowest level since December, assuming no change in all other countries in the global aggregate – see chart 1. 

Chart 1

Chart 1 showing Global Composite PMI New Orders & G7 + E7 Real Narrow Money (% 6m)

Weakness in the flash surveys was driven by a further slowdown in services new business, with manufacturing new orders little changed – chart 2.

Chart 2

Chart 2 showing Global PMI New Orders / Business

Any hopes of manufacturing stabilisation, however, may be dashed by full September results incorporating China and other emerging economies. The equity analysts’ earnings revisions ratio correlates with Chinese manufacturing PMI new orders and weakened sharply this month – chart 3. 

Chart 3

Chart 3 showing China NBS Manufacturing PMI New Orders & IBES China Earnings Revisions Ratio

Renewed deterioration in Chinese / Asian manufacturing is also suggested by the Korean FKI survey for September, showing a relapse in the assessment of business prospects to the weakest since February – chart 4.

Chart 4

Chart 4 showing Global Manufacturing PMI New Orders & Korea FKI Manufacturing Business Prospects
NS Partners Ltd.
September 27th, 2023