The key measure used to track the cycle is the annual change in G7 stockbuilding, expressed as a percentage of GDP. This is supplemented by a more timely indicator derived from business surveys, which displays a strong correlation with the GDP measure – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The GDP indicator last bottomed in Q1 2023, implying that the current upswing is mature, already matching the historical average duration of a whole cycle (of 3.5 years).

The GDP measure reached a level consistent with a peak in Q1 2025 but stockbuilding behaviour around that time was distorted by front-running of US tariffs. A correction over subsequent quarters has run its course, with the business survey indicator signalling a strong rebound in Q3 2026. This is supported by other evidence, e.g. the Atlanta Fed US GDP nowcast currently estimates that stockbuilding will contribute 2.0 pp to annualised Q3 growth.

The judgement here, therefore, is that the cycle is reaching a final peak in Q3 ahead of a multi-quarter downswing.

The cycle describes demand for production inputs – both raw materials and semi-manufactures, including electronic components – so is strongly correlated with their prices. A further rise in year-on-year growth of industrial commodity prices and global semiconductor sales in Q3 is consistent with the cycle reaching a peak – chart 2.

Chart 2

The suggestion is that the cycle about to shift from providing a tailwind to global economic momentum and pricing power to acting as a progressive headwind, with a maximum negative impact in mid-to-late 2027.

The risk of economic weakness next year is magnified by signs that a downswing in the long-term housing cycle is on track to accelerate into a 2027-28 low. The cycle has averaged 18 years historically, with the last trough reached in 2009.

The behaviour of homebuilding stocks may provide a clue to the timing of the next low. Chart 3 shows that an average of stock prices of US and UK homebuilders reached a peak 47 and 37 months respectively before lows in the last two housing cycles, in 1991 and 2009, while UK prices peaked 33 months before a previous trough in 1975.

Chart 3

The most recent peak in the average occurred in September 2024, suggesting a cycle trough between June 2027 and August 2028.

UK homebuilding stocks broke below a 2025 low in March and have yet to regain this level. US stocks currently remain above the corresponding low; an equivalent breakdown would suggest an acceleration of the cycle downswing – chart 4.

Chart 4

Joint weakness of the stockbuilding and housing cycles in 2027 would likely overpower and / or shorten the current business investment cycle upswing.

The post Cycle update: expected 2027 weakness crystallising appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The key measure used to track the cycle is the annual change in G7 stockbuilding, expressed as a percentage of GDP. This is supplemented by a more timely indicator derived from business surveys, which displays a strong correlation with the GDP measure – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The GDP indicator last bottomed in Q1 2023, implying that the current upswing is mature, already matching the historical average duration of a whole cycle (of 3.5 years).

The GDP measure reached a level consistent with a peak in Q1 2025 but stockbuilding behaviour around that time was distorted by front-running of US tariffs. A correction over subsequent quarters has run its course, with the business survey indicator signalling a strong rebound in Q3 2026. This is supported by other evidence, e.g. the Atlanta Fed US GDP nowcast currently estimates that stockbuilding will contribute 2.0 pp to annualised Q3 growth.

The judgement here, therefore, is that the cycle is reaching a final peak in Q3 ahead of a multi-quarter downswing.

The cycle describes demand for production inputs – both raw materials and semi-manufactures, including electronic components – so is strongly correlated with their prices. A further rise in year-on-year growth of industrial commodity prices and global semiconductor sales in Q3 is consistent with the cycle reaching a peak – chart 2.

Chart 2

The suggestion is that the cycle about to shift from providing a tailwind to global economic momentum and pricing power to acting as a progressive headwind, with a maximum negative impact in mid-to-late 2027.

The risk of economic weakness next year is magnified by signs that a downswing in the long-term housing cycle is on track to accelerate into a 2027-28 low. The cycle has averaged 18 years historically, with the last trough reached in 2009.

The behaviour of homebuilding stocks may provide a clue to the timing of the next low. Chart 3 shows that an average of stock prices of US and UK homebuilders reached a peak 47 and 37 months respectively before lows in the last two housing cycles, in 1991 and 2009, while UK prices peaked 33 months before a previous trough in 1975.

Chart 3

The most recent peak in the average occurred in September 2024, suggesting a cycle trough between June 2027 and August 2028.

UK homebuilding stocks broke below a 2025 low in March and have yet to regain this level. US stocks currently remain above the corresponding low; an equivalent breakdown would suggest an acceleration of the cycle downswing – chart 4.

Chart 4

Joint weakness of the stockbuilding and housing cycles in 2027 would likely overpower and / or shorten the current business investment cycle upswing.

The post Cycle update: expected 2027 weakness crystallising appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

If AI hasn’t already struck fear in the minds of the general population, humanoid robots are threatening to break the confines of the lab and enter the real world. It’s been hard to ignore those funny humanoid robot videos but it’s not all about party tricks and dance moves. Deployments are expected to surge from today’s tens of thousands to millions in the next decade, driven by broadening commercial and industrial applications.

What’s stopped full-scale adoption in the past?

Robots themselves are not new. They have been performing singular mechanical tasks like painting, welding or assembling for decades. There is no shortage of demand for real-world applications, but the biggest constraint for full-scale, multipurpose adoption remains a lack of real-world training data.

Unlike LLMs where most of the training data resides on the internet, robots need data from the physical world, including watching humans performing various mundane and complex tasks in unpredictable environments (called physical AI). However, the race is on to use real-world and synthetic data to create the data flywheel that will enable rollout at scale. AI-based simulation algorithms can now replicate physical-world training data and compress the learning cycle from years to days.

Additional constraints to humanoid robot adoption are the lack of dexterity and limited battery life that prevent robots from taking up complex and mission critical tasks – for now.

What’s changed now to drive full-scale adoption?

As per CLSA, there are four key trends beneath the surface that could be changing the paradigm when it comes to full-scale commercialization of humanoids.

1. Actuators used to convert electrical energy into kinetic energy (movement) are being standardized across the industry with energy efficient and precise electric actuators (vs. leaky hydraulic actuators).
2. A move toward modularization where the motor, reducer, inverter and controller are housed in one integrated unit which is easier to mass produce.
3. Reducers are what give robotic joints the power to lift weights. Advances in AI software are helping decrease inaccuracies in low-cost planetary reducers, therefore enhancing performance while bringing overall costs down.
4. Finally, the adoption of linear actuators which use convert rotational energy into straight-line thrust, mimicking the contraction and extension of human muscles. This helps with heavy load bearing capacity and better shock absorption on ground impact.

Where will demand come from?

• Manufacturing – particularly in automotive industries which have both the scale and assembly line processes to enable large-scale adoption. We also see auto component companies as fertile ground for the emergence of humanoid robot opportunities, given their scale manufacturing and quality control experience.
• Retail and facilities management – from tasks like customer service, cleaning and delivery-related work.
• Logistics – tasks around assembly, packaging, inspection and transportation.
• Defence and hazardous tasks – from mine clearing to dangerous material handling.

We have several holdings in the emerging market small cap portfolio that could potentially benefit from the coming robotics revolution. Sinbon Electronics Co. Ltd. (3023 TT) supplies sensors and connectors for both battery charging and signal transmission, and video capture harnesses directly to humanoid robot OEMs. Reliability and quality requirements are stringent and Sinbon is a sole supplier for at least two US humanoid clients.

Similarly, pneumatic actuators and linear motion components are among the most widely used parts in humanoid robot joint and limb assemblies and Airtac International Group (1590 TT) is an important supplier in this space. We also believe holdings such as WeRide Inc. (WRD US) and Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co. Ltd. (301029 CH) could potentially benefit from increased investment in humanoid robotics.

We believe emerging markets will be at the heart of the humanoid revolution. According to Bloomberg, China accounted for almost all global humanoid shipments so far this year. Just as how Asian supply chains deliver the picks and shovels enabling the current AI buildout, we think a similar story will play out in robotics as the current supply chain leverages its scale and manufacturing excellence to mass produce everything from actuators, reducers, sensors and cables that are needed to power this revolution.

The companies discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate the investment team’s research into the robotics theme and are not intended as investment recommendations. There is no assurance that these companies will benefit from increased adoption of humanoid robotics or that the investment thesis will develop as anticipated.

The post Humanoid robots: AI’s next big leap appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

If AI hasn’t already struck fear in the minds of the general population, humanoid robots are threatening to break the confines of the lab and enter the real world. It’s been hard to ignore those funny humanoid robot videos but it’s not all about party tricks and dance moves. Deployments are expected to surge from today’s tens of thousands to millions in the next decade, driven by broadening commercial and industrial applications.

What’s stopped full-scale adoption in the past?

Robots themselves are not new. They have been performing singular mechanical tasks like painting, welding or assembling for decades. There is no shortage of demand for real-world applications, but the biggest constraint for full-scale, multipurpose adoption remains a lack of real-world training data.

Unlike LLMs where most of the training data resides on the internet, robots need data from the physical world, including watching humans performing various mundane and complex tasks in unpredictable environments (called physical AI). However, the race is on to use real-world and synthetic data to create the data flywheel that will enable rollout at scale. AI-based simulation algorithms can now replicate physical-world training data and compress the learning cycle from years to days.

Additional constraints to humanoid robot adoption are the lack of dexterity and limited battery life that prevent robots from taking up complex and mission critical tasks – for now.

What’s changed now to drive full-scale adoption?

As per CLSA, there are four key trends beneath the surface that could be changing the paradigm when it comes to full-scale commercialization of humanoids.

1. Actuators used to convert electrical energy into kinetic energy (movement) are being standardized across the industry with energy efficient and precise electric actuators (vs. leaky hydraulic actuators).
2. A move toward modularization where the motor, reducer, inverter and controller are housed in one integrated unit which is easier to mass produce.
3. Reducers are what give robotic joints the power to lift weights. Advances in AI software are helping decrease inaccuracies in low-cost planetary reducers, therefore enhancing performance while bringing overall costs down.
4. Finally, the adoption of linear actuators which use convert rotational energy into straight-line thrust, mimicking the contraction and extension of human muscles. This helps with heavy load bearing capacity and better shock absorption on ground impact.

Where will demand come from?

• Manufacturing – particularly in automotive industries which have both the scale and assembly line processes to enable large-scale adoption. We also see auto component companies as fertile ground for the emergence of humanoid robot opportunities, given their scale manufacturing and quality control experience.
• Retail and facilities management – from tasks like customer service, cleaning and delivery-related work.
• Logistics – tasks around assembly, packaging, inspection and transportation.
• Defence and hazardous tasks – from mine clearing to dangerous material handling.

We have several holdings in the emerging market small cap portfolio that could potentially benefit from the coming robotics revolution. Sinbon Electronics Co. Ltd. (3023 TT) supplies sensors and connectors for both battery charging and signal transmission, and video capture harnesses directly to humanoid robot OEMs. Reliability and quality requirements are stringent and Sinbon is a sole supplier for at least two US humanoid clients.

Similarly, pneumatic actuators and linear motion components are among the most widely used parts in humanoid robot joint and limb assemblies and Airtac International Group (1590 TT) is an important supplier in this space. We also believe holdings such as WeRide Inc. (WRD US) and Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co. Ltd. (301029 CH) could potentially benefit from increased investment in humanoid robotics.

We believe emerging markets will be at the heart of the humanoid revolution. According to Bloomberg, China accounted for almost all global humanoid shipments so far this year. Just as how Asian supply chains deliver the picks and shovels enabling the current AI buildout, we think a similar story will play out in robotics as the current supply chain leverages its scale and manufacturing excellence to mass produce everything from actuators, reducers, sensors and cables that are needed to power this revolution.

The companies discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate the investment team’s research into the robotics theme and are not intended as investment recommendations. There is no assurance that these companies will benefit from increased adoption of humanoid robotics or that the investment thesis will develop as anticipated.

The post Humanoid robots: AI’s next big leap appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Les guerres commerciales produisent rarement des résultats gagnants. Elles augmentent les coûts, perturbent l’investissement et injectent une incertitude inutile dans les décisions d’affaires. Le regain de confrontation entre les États-Unis et le Canada ne fait pas exception et, à court terme, il devrait peser sur la croissance canadienne. Toutefois, les répercussions à plus long terme pourraient en fait être plus constructives. Depuis des années, le Canada peine à convertir tous ses avantages, notamment ses ressources abondantes, sa stabilité politique et ses énormes réserves de capital institutionnel, en un investissement et une productivité plus solides. Les obstacles réglementaires, la lenteur des approbations de projets et la forte dépendance à l’égard du marché voisin des États-Unis ont constamment freiné l’économie. Le différend commercial actuel pourrait fournir la pression nécessaire pour susciter le changement.

Choc à court terme, catalyseur à plus long terme

Les dernières négociations ont échoué après que les modalités d’un accord potentiel eurent changé tard dans le processus. Ottawa a finalement quitté la table, soutenant que l’accord proposé affaiblirait des secteurs clés et limiterait la capacité du Canada à diversifier ses relations commerciales. L’administration Trump a ensuite annoncé des droits de douane de 50 % sur environ 20 G$ US d’exportations canadiennes, ce qui a amené le Canada à répliquer par des contre-tarifs équivalents sur des biens américains à compter du 8 septembre. L’incidence économique immédiate ne doit pas être minimisée, mais elle demeure également relativement circonscrite. Pour être clair, l’incidence totale est gérable. Environ 85 % des exportations canadiennes demeurent exemptées en vertu de l’ACEUM, tandis que les nouveaux droits de douane touchent environ 5 % des exportations totales. L’incertitude commerciale retardera probablement certains investissements et pèsera sur la croissance, mais il ne s’agit pas encore d’un désastre économique. Le Canada dispose aussi d’une capacité budgétaire plus importante que celle de bon nombre d’économies développées pour amortir le choc à court terme tout en soutenant l’investissement, et il aborde cette guerre commerciale avec une inflation relativement plus modérée.

Ce qui pourrait compter davantage, c’est la façon dont le Canada réagira. Le premier ministre Carney est entré en fonction avec un programme ambitieux visant à accélérer les projets d’infrastructure et de ressources, à réduire les obstacles à l’investissement et à attirer beaucoup plus de capitaux privés. La question persistante était de savoir si le Canada pourrait surmonter les obstacles réglementaires et politiques qui ont ralenti les grands projets par le passé.

Ce différend commercial pourrait catalyser le changement. Les nouveaux pipelines, les infrastructures de GNL, les projets de minéraux critiques et le transport d’électricité peuvent de plus en plus être présentés non seulement comme du développement économique, mais aussi comme des éléments de résilience nationale. L’élimination des barrières commerciales internes devient urgente lorsque le commerce extérieur est moins fiable. En ce sens, le différend augmente le coût de l’inaction. Un contexte politique unifié pourrait donner à Ottawa la marge de manœuvre nécessaire pour faire avancer des projets dont on discute depuis des années, mais qui se concrétisent rarement.

Il en résulte des perspectives inhabituelles à deux horizons : une croissance plus faible à court terme, mais un investissement intérieur et une productivité potentiellement plus solides au fil du temps.

Le Canada paraît différent vu de l’extérieur

Le contexte mondial des placements évolue également, alors que les flux commerciaux et de capitaux sont de plus en plus influencés par la politique. Les investisseurs accordent davantage d’attention à la stabilité institutionnelle, à l’accès aux ressources et à la fiabilité des contreparties. Dans ce contexte, les forces relatives du Canada prennent de la valeur. Des signes préliminaires indiquent que les capitaux internationaux deviennent plus réceptifs à l’égard du Canada. L’investissement direct étranger a atteint tout juste moins de 26 G$ CA au T2, en hausse par rapport à la moyenne de 21 G$ CA des quatre trimestres précédents. La demande étrangère pour les actifs financiers canadiens a également été forte. La majeure partie de ces achats s’est concentrée dans les obligations, mais les flux étrangers vers les actions canadiennes sont récemment redevenus positifs après plusieurs années de ventes persistantes (voir le graphique 1).

Graphique 1 – Les flux étrangers vers les actions canadiennes redeviennent positifs

Source : Statistique Canada

Le Canada dispose d’une occasion particulièrement opportune de susciter davantage d’intérêt. À la mi-septembre, Toronto accueillera le premier Sommet de l’investissement du Canada, conçu pour attirer des capitaux vers les entreprises et les infrastructures canadiennes. Il survient maintenant au moment où les investisseurs mondiaux réévaluent activement leur concentration géographique et leur exposition aux chaînes d’approvisionnement. Le Canada n’a pas besoin de remplacer les États-Unis comme destination mondiale des placements. Il peut simplement devenir plus attrayant à la marge.

Le capital est déjà ici

Le Canada dispose également d’une énorme source de capital intérieur. Les grandes caisses de retraite du pays gèrent collectivement environ 2,5 T$ CA, mais seulement environ le quart de leurs actifs sont actuellement investis au Canada. Toutefois, l’argument en faveur de l’investissement intérieur ne peut pas simplement reposer sur un appel à « acheter canadien ». Il exige de meilleures occasions. C’est pourquoi les réformes des politiques et le développement de projets comptent. Les infrastructures, l’énergie, la production d’électricité, les minéraux critiques et le transport sont des actifs de longue durée qui peuvent bien convenir aux investisseurs en régimes de retraite. Si le Canada peut accélérer les approbations et créer des projets plus attrayants sur le plan commercial, l’investissement intérieur pourrait augmenter parce que les occasions elles-mêmes seraient convaincantes.

Tirer le meilleur parti du moment

La confrontation commerciale demeure un frein économique à court terme, mais elle pourrait aussi mettre en évidence certaines des faiblesses structurelles dont le Canada discute depuis des années sans les corriger. C’est là que réside l’occasion. Rien ne garantit que le Canada transformera ce moment en changement durable. Les annonces de projets doivent encore se traduire par de véritables projets, et les réformes réglementaires doivent encore produire des résultats durables. Mais l’argument en faveur des placements est assurément devenu plus intéressant.

Stratégie de portefeuille

Les marchés canadiens ont fait preuve d’une résilience notable malgré l’escalade des tensions commerciales. Les actions canadiennes ont continué de bien se comporter, l’indice composé S&P/TSX surpassant l’indice S&P 500 tant depuis le début du trimestre (voir le graphique 2) que depuis le début de l’année (en monnaie locale). Parallèlement, le dollar canadien a mieux résisté que prévu depuis la reprise de la guerre commerciale, compte tenu de ce qui constituerait normalement un choc négatif important pour les perspectives intérieures. Cette résilience laisse croire que les investisseurs pourraient regarder au-delà de l’incidence immédiate sur la croissance. En même temps, les rendements obligataires ont augmenté à l’échelle mondiale, reflétant les pressions persistantes attribuables à une croissance solide du PIB nominal, aux dépenses budgétaires et, peut-être surtout, à la combinaison croissante des besoins de financement des secteurs public et privé. Aux États-Unis, la hausse des rendements est devenue suffisamment importante (voir le graphique 3) pour que le secrétaire au Trésor Bessent augmente les achats de titres du Trésor à long terme dans le cadre du programme de rachat. Les flux directs étaient faibles par rapport à la taille du marché, mais le signal était notable : les responsables du Trésor sont de plus en plus mal à l’aise devant des hausses désordonnées des rendements à long terme. Les obligations à long terme ont d’abord progressé, mais le mouvement s’est rapidement estompé, ce qui donne à penser que l’intervention des autorités pourrait ne pas éliminer la pression sous-jacente sur les taux à plus long terme. Parallèlement, les communications de plus en plus restrictives de la Fed, plus récemment de la part du président Warsh au symposium de politique économique de Jackson Hole, laissent entendre qu’une inflation persistante aux États-Unis pourrait encore forcer un resserrement de la politique monétaire.

Graphique 2 – Les actions canadiennes surpassent les autres marchés malgré la guerre commerciale

Sources : Bourse de Toronto, S&P Global, MSCI, Nasdaq, Macrobond

Graphique 3 – Les rendements des obligations du Trésor américain à 30 ans ont atteint leur plus haut niveau en près de 20 ans

Sources : Département du Trésor des États-Unis, Macrobond

Dans ce contexte, les portefeuilles équilibrés conservent une orientation globalement défensive, avec une exposition neutre aux actions. Au sein des actions, nous privilégions les actions canadiennes par rapport aux actions mondiales.

Au sein des titres à revenu fixe, la croissance canadienne plus faible et l’incertitude commerciale apportent un certain soutien tactique à la durée, mais les pressions persistantes à l’extrémité longue de la courbe commandent la prudence. Nous observons actuellement des occasions relativement attrayantes liées à l’accentuation pentification de la courbe des taux canadienne.

La stratégie des portefeuilles d’actions fondamentales demeure constructive, soutenue par des révisions positives des bénéfices et une activité économique résiliente. Nous continuons de favoriser des thèmes comme les infrastructures d’IA, les terres rares et la défense, tout en surveillant les principaux risques, notamment les pressions inflationnistes potentielles et tout ralentissement des dépenses d’investissement liées à l’IA.

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Trade wars rarely create winning outcomes. They raise costs, disrupt investment and inject unnecessary uncertainty into business decisions. The renewed US-Canada confrontation is no exception, and, in the near term, it is likely to weigh on Canadian growth. But the longer-term implications may actually be more constructive. For years, Canada has struggled to convert all its advantages, including abundant resources, political stability and enormous pools of institutional capital into stronger investment and productivity. Regulatory barriers, slow project approvals and heavy reliance on the neighbouring US marketplace have perpetually held the economy back. The current trade dispute may provide the pressure needed to make change.

Short-term shock, longer-term catalyst

The latest negotiations broke down after the terms of a potential agreement shifted late in the process. Ottawa ultimately walked away, arguing the proposed deal would weaken key industries and constrain Canada’s ability to diversify its trade relationships. The Trump administration then announced 50% tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian exports, prompting Canada to respond with matching counter-tariffs on US goods beginning September 8. The immediate economic impact should not be dismissed, but it also remains relatively contained. To be clear, the total impact is manageable. Roughly 85% of Canadian exports remain exempt under USMCA, while the newest tariffs affect approximately 5% of total exports. Trade uncertainty will likely delay some investment and weigh on growth, but this is not yet an economic disaster. Canada also has more fiscal capacity than many developed economies to cushion the near-term shock while supporting investment, and enters this trade war with relatively more subdued inflation.

What may matter more is how Canada responds. Prime Minister Carney entered office with an ambitious agenda to accelerate infrastructure and resource projects, reduce barriers to investment and attract significantly more private capital. The persistent question has been whether Canada could overcome the regulatory and political hurdles that have slowed major projects in the past.

This trade dispute could catalyze change. New pipelines, LNG infrastructure, critical-mineral projects and electricity transmission can increasingly be framed not simply as economic development, but as national resilience. Removing internal trade barriers becomes urgent when external trade is less dependable. In that sense, the dispute raises the cost of doing nothing. A unified political environment could give Ottawa the room to advance projects that have been discussed for years but rarely delivered upon.

The result is an unusual two-horizon outlook: weaker growth in the near term, but potentially stronger domestic investment and productivity over time.

Canada looks different from the outside

The global investment backdrop is also evolving as trade and capital flows become increasingly influenced by politics. Investors are paying more attention to institutional stability, access to resources and the reliability of counterparties. Against that backdrop, Canada’s relative strengths are becoming more valuable. There are tentative signs that international capital is becoming more receptive to Canada. Foreign direct investment reached just under C$26 billion in Q2, rising from the prior four-quarter average of C$21 billion. Foreign demand for Canadian financial assets has also been strong. Most of that buying has been in bonds, but foreign flows into Canadian equities have recently turned positive after several years of persistent selling (see Chart 1).

Chart 1 – Foreign flows in Canadian equities turn positive

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada has an unusually timely opportunity to capture more interest. In mid-September, Toronto will host the inaugural Canada Investment Summit, which was designed to attract capital into Canadian businesses and infrastructure. It now arrives as global investors are actively reconsidering geographic concentration and supply-chain exposure. Canada does not need to replace the US as a global investment destination. It simply can become more attractive at the margin.

The capital is already here

Canada also has an enormous domestic source of capital. The country’s major pension funds collectively manage roughly C$2.5 trillion, yet only about one-quarter of their assets are currently invested in Canada. A domestic investment case, however, cannot simply rest on a “Buy Canada” argument. It requires better opportunities. That is why policy reform and project development matter. Infrastructure, energy, power generation, critical minerals and transportation are long-duration assets that can be well suited to pension investors. If Canada can accelerate approvals and create more commercially attractive projects, greater domestic investment could follow because the opportunities themselves are compelling.

Making the most of the moment

The trade confrontation remains a near-term economic headwind, but it may also expose some of the structural weaknesses Canada has spent years discussing without fixing. That is the opportunity. There is no guarantee that Canada will convert this moment into lasting change. Project announcements still need to become actual projects, and regulatory reform still needs to produce lasting results. But the investment case has certainly become more interesting.

Portfolio strategy

Canadian markets have been notably resilient despite the escalation in trade tensions. Canadian equities have continued to perform well, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index outperforming the S&P500 on both a quarter-to-date (see Chart 2) and year-to-date basis (in local currency). Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has held up better than expected since the trade war reignited, given what would normally be a significant negative shock to the domestic outlook. This resilience suggests investors may be looking beyond the immediate growth impact. At the same time, bond yields have moved higher globally, reflecting continued pressure from solid nominal GDP growth, fiscal spending and, perhaps most notably, the rising combination of public- and private-sector financing needs. In the US, the move in yields became significant enough (see Chart 3) that Treasury Secretary Bessent increased purchases of long-dated Treasuries through the buyback program. The direct flows were small relative to the market, but the signal was notable: Treasury officials are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with disorderly rises in long-term yields. Long bonds initially rallied, but the move faded quickly, suggesting policy intervention may not remove the underlying pressure on longer-term rates. At the same time, increasingly hawkish Fed communication, most recently from Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, suggests persistent US inflation could still force a tightening in monetary policy.

Chart 2 – Canadian equities outperform despite trade war

Source: Toronto Stock Exchange, S&P Global, MSCI, Nasdaq, Macrobond

Chart 3 – US 30-year yields reached highest level in nearly 20 years

Source: U.S. Department of Treasury, Macrobond

Against this backdrop, balanced portfolios maintain a broadly defensive stance, with flat equity exposure. Within equities, we have a preference for Canadian equities relative to global equities.

Within fixed income, softer Canadian growth and trade uncertainty provide some tactical support for duration, but continued pressure at the long end argues for caution. We currently see relatively attractive opportunities in Canadian yield curve steepening.

Fundamental equity portfolio strategy remains constructive, supported by positive earnings revisions and resilient economic activity. We continue to favour themes including AI infrastructure, rare earths and defence, while monitoring key risks including potential inflation pressures and any slowdown in AI capital spending.

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The global manufacturing PMI new orders index rose in August, though remains below an April high – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The solid August result is consistent with a rise in global six-month real narrow money momentum into early 2026. Growth, however, has eased since February, suggesting a moderation in new orders over the remainder of the year.

A July fall in real money momentum reflected deepening contractions in Europe and Japan, which offset a further pick-up in the US – chart 2.

Chart 2

The suggestion is that the US economy is running hot with the Fed behind the curve, while ECB and BoJ policy tightening is misguided, risking a sharp economic slowdown, or worse.

Meanwhile, six-month growth of global real narrow money is estimated to have fallen below that of industrial output in July, implying a less favourable liquidity backdrop for markets – chart 3.

Chart 3

A previous undershoot in April preceded a sharp correction in momentum stocks but real money growth recovered to close the gap in May / June, following which equity indices reached new highs.

The global services PMI survey for August was stronger than for manufacturing, with new business reaching a 20-month high. Services buoyancy, however, has little implication for manufacturing prospects. Granger-causality tests show that manufacturing new orders predict services new business but not vice versa. Manufacturing deceleration is likely to be reflected in services cooling.

The post Global money update: cooler despite US appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The global manufacturing PMI new orders index rose in August, though remains below an April high – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The solid August result is consistent with a rise in global six-month real narrow money momentum into early 2026. Growth, however, has eased since February, suggesting a moderation in new orders over the remainder of the year.

A July fall in real money momentum reflected deepening contractions in Europe and Japan, which offset a further pick-up in the US – chart 2.

Chart 2

The suggestion is that the US economy is running hot with the Fed behind the curve, while ECB and BoJ policy tightening is misguided, risking a sharp economic slowdown, or worse.

Meanwhile, six-month growth of global real narrow money is estimated to have fallen below that of industrial output in July, implying a less favourable liquidity backdrop for markets – chart 3.

Chart 3

A previous undershoot in April preceded a sharp correction in momentum stocks but real money growth recovered to close the gap in May / June, following which equity indices reached new highs.

The global services PMI survey for August was stronger than for manufacturing, with new business reaching a 20-month high. Services buoyancy, however, has little implication for manufacturing prospects. Granger-causality tests show that manufacturing new orders predict services new business but not vice versa. Manufacturing deceleration is likely to be reflected in services cooling.

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In a recent Investment Executive Soundbites interview, Lisa Conroy, CFA, Product Specialist on our Fundamental Equity team, discusses the outlook for Canadian equities and why a number of structural trends are creating compelling opportunities for Canadian companies. From onshoring and electrification to AI infrastructure investment, Lisa explains why Canada is well positioned to benefit from forces reshaping the global economy and where our team is finding opportunities across the Canadian market.

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Dans une récente entrevue accordée à Soundbites d’Investment Executive, Lisa Conroy, CFA, spécialiste des produits au sein de notre équipe des actions fondamentales, présente ses perspectives pour les actions canadiennes et explique pourquoi plusieurs tendances structurelles créent des occasions intéressantes pour les entreprises canadiennes. Du rapatriement des activités de production à l’électrification, en passant par les investissements dans les infrastructures liées à l’intelligence artificielle, Lisa explique pourquoi le Canada est bien placé pour tirer parti des forces qui transforment l’économie mondiale et où notre équipe trouve des occasions sur le marché canadien.

The post Lisa Conroy discute des occasions sur le marché des actions canadiennes avec Investment Executive appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.